Substantially more sales in 1st quarter 2025 with price dampening due to many 'off-pump' homes

With almost 34,000 sales in the 1st quarter, there is considerable momentum in the housing market. This is much more than in the same period in three previous years. The average transaction price comes to 473,000 euros. This is a small price drop of 1.8% compared to the previous quarter, but this happens more often in a 1st quarter. On an annual basis, the price increase is still almost 10%. Interestingly, 1 in 5 sales are former rental properties, two-thirds of which are flats. In the G4 municipalities of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht combined, this is even the case for 2 out of 5. These 'uitpond houses' are often somewhat smaller and simpler, dampening sales prices.

Existing building

More houses sold than a year ago

Compared to last year, many more homes were sold this quarter: almost 34 thousand homes, over 13% more than in Q1 2024. More flats in particular were sold. This rise was largely due to the sharp increase in the number of evictions.

Small price drop, year-on-year increase though

The average house price in the Netherlands shows a small decline of 1.8% this quarter. The transaction price thus drops from 485,000 euros to 473,000 euros. This is not unusual for a 1st quarter. In the past 5 years, we recorded 4 times a quarter with a small price drop. On a year-on-year basis, prices are up 9.7%. Here it can be seen that the price increase for flats is slightly lower than for the other house types. The larger supply of out-pound houses, often cheaper flats, is depressing this price trend.

Outpossessions depress sales prices

Nationwide, the average transaction price of existing homes is now €473,000. For uitpond homes alone, it is 404,000 euros. So those outpounds pull the price down. Without evictions, the average transaction price nationwide would have been 9 thousand euro higher at 482,000 euro. The downward price effect of outpromotions is thus -1.9% nationwide.

Average price paid 4.4% above asking price

For all sold houses in the Netherlands, an average of 4.4% above the asking price was paid last quarter. For mid-terrace houses, the difference in asking/selling price was the highest at 6.6%. For detached houses, the market is somewhat wider, resulting in an average of 0.6% below the asking price. Still over two-thirds (68%) of all house sales were overbid on the house. For mid-terrace houses, this share was as high as 80%.

More supply, especially more flats

The supply of existing owner-occupied houses via NVM estate agents rose by 15% to almost 26 thousand houses in Q1 2025. The share of flats in the total supply is increasing rapidly. Five years ago, that share was below 20%. This quarter, it rises to more than 33%. This is - as indicated - because the number of evictions is rising fast and a large proportion of those evicted houses are flats.

Housing market remains tight

The tightness indicator comes out at 2.3 - the same reading as a year ago. This means that, on average, a house seeker has 2.3 potentially suitable houses to choose from. The market for mid-terrace houses is the tightest, the indicator stands at 1.7. For detached houses, the indicator stands at 4.3. With a few exceptions, this quarter shows that the tightest regions are the areas in the east of the country. This is unusual: in recent years, it was often the case that the housing market was most overheated in Randstad municipalities. That is no longer the case, partly due to the increase in the number of evictions, supply is increasing. Areas in the rest of the country are catching up, increasing the tightness in those regions.

Asking prices up almost 6.5% year-on-year

The average asking price of houses for sale is 6.5% higher than a year ago. Then 554,000 euros, now 575,000 euros. For all house types, the asking price is higher than a year ago, but especially for detached houses the development has been fast: an asking price increase of almost 12%. Last year, the asking price was just above 8 tonnes, now it is 9 tonnes.

Topic

Uitponding former rental properties

NVM data follower brainbay investigated the market of out-pound houses. These are former rental properties of private and commercial landlords that have gone up for sale due to, among other things, the high Box 3 levy, the Affordable Rent Act and the abolition of temporary rental contracts from 1 July 2024. The Land Registry's analysis and its own figures show that in the last quarter of 2024, 20% of all house sales will be out-of-pocket homes. The share in the G4 municipalities is even double: 40%. In the whole of 2024, 37,000 uitpond homes were sold. NVM estate agents expect this to increase further in 2025/2026.

New build

Sales stabilise

In the 1st quarter of 2025, 6,740 new-build homes were sold, similar to the same period a year earlier. The growth of the past year is thus levelling off. However, sentiment among estate agents is very positive about the saleability of new-build homes. Despite the high number of transactions this quarter, there are concerns about the long term: 'Few building permits are being issued and the supply of ground-level houses continues to fall. This leads to an imbalance between supply, affordability and buyers' needs' said trade group chairman Gerssen, 'Meanwhile, the number of registrations on new-build projects is increasing, showing that many consumers are interested in a new-build home.'

More flats sold

New-build sales are levelling off due to a lack of supply of residential properties in particular. Fewer new-build homes were for sale at the beginning of the quarter than a year earlier. In addition, almost half of newly built houses sold are now flats, whereas this used to be much lower and these generally sell at a slower pace. Of flats that came up for sale in 2024, only 36% were sold within three months. By comparison, for mid-terrace houses, the figure was 62%.

Average selling price rises

The average price of a new-build home rose to 492,000 euros, mainly because fewer ground-level homes in the lower price segments were sold The price per square metre of a new-build home has been rising for some time, as new homes become smaller due to the focus on affordable and inner-city construction. The price went from 4,340 euros in the 1st quarter a year ago to 4,780 euros now.

Flats form larger share of new construction supply

The continued level of new construction supply is mainly due to the ample supply of flats. The supply of new residential houses remains low and follows a downward trend. This supply has halved in five years from over 10,000 to around 5,000 in this quarter. Meanwhile, 2 out of 3 available new-build homes are flats, up from 1 out of 3 five years ago. The increase in the share of flats in supply is partly due to the focus on affordable and inner-city construction and partly due to the disappearance of investors in rental complexes, converting projects to owner-occupied flats.