Housing market Elise Hees 1 december 2021

What can you expect from house prices in 2022?

Finding and buying a suitable home? That has become very difficult in recent years. House prices are rising to historically high levels and the supply of houses is only decreasing. On average, a house costs more than 360,000 euros, as the CBS recently calculated. Because of this situation, people have to bid hard to get hold of a house. The high demand for houses is mainly due to a low interest rate, which enables people to borrow money for houses at interesting rates.

The important question for people who want to buy a new house; what will the housing market do in 2022?

House price forecast 2022

The end is not yet in sight. House prices increased in 2021 with an average increase of no less than 5.5 percent compared to 2020. Rabobank's expectations for 2022 are that the price increase will rise again by an average of about 2.5 percent.

This means that in five years' time, house prices have risen by an average of almost 30 per cent, looking back at 2018. In regions such as Utrecht, Haarlem and Amsterdam, house prices have almost doubled. The cities of Eindhoven, The Hague and Rotterdam have also seen huge increases.

The expected dip due to corona

Because of the corona crisis, a temporary dip in house prices was expected. This would mainly have been due to job losses, which could have had financial consequences. But for various reasons, price developments remained high:

  • The scarcity on the Dutch housing market

  • The migration to the Randstad and to the west is still continuing

  • People want to live independently in a house

  • Mortgage interest rates are expected to remain at historically low levels in the medium term

After the high increase in value in recent years, the provisional value is only increasing. As a result, they also face several other problems. There is a gap between the income of the Dutch and the prices that have to be paid for a house. For some, the corona crisis was a reason to look for a bigger house. Rabobank expects this to have little effect in 2022.

How will first-time buyers still find an affordable home?

The expectation for the housing market seems to continue in 2022. The demand for houses will still be high, compared to the supply, which means that prices may continue to rise. Without additional houses, it will remain difficult for first-time buyers to find a home. Since May 2019, there has been an upward trend in new construction, but this is also still lower than the numbers from 2017 and 2018. The locations where building is allowed remain limited and the stacking of conditions for building, such as spatial quality, parking and aesthetics, ensures that the housing supply lags behind. For starters, it is better to look for housing in smaller towns or on the outskirts of a city. There, house prices are on average lower. In large cities in particular, there is a shortage of starter homes and house prices are rising all the time.

Is an owner-occupied home not affordable? Then starters can also consider renting, but often renting is not an option. Rental prices in the Netherlands are also increasing. Houses with a rent between 600 and 1000 euros per month are hardly available anymore.

No transfer tax

Since 2021, young home buyers do not pay transfer tax anymore (for houses up to 400,000 euros). As a result, fewer houses were sold at the end of 2020, as buyers waited until 2021. With this extra financial space, people can now bid more, which in turn puts further upward pressure on prices.

Despite the concerns about the housing market, prices continue to rise, but no one knows what the housing market will do in five years' time. Do you want to buy a new house? Take a look at our houses for sale and new-build projects and who knows, you might soon be living in a new house.

Source: RaboResearch

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